weekly intra-DE gigs ÷ DE drivers active in trailing 30 days · Sweet spot recomputed weekly from rolling 4-week regression (reacts fast to regime changes)
Enter next week's predicted gig volume from sales. The calculator pulls the rest from the dashboard and tells you how many leads to acquire this week.
When the red line crosses below blue, GM0 per gig is negative
Each dot = one week. Larger dot = more gigs that week. Color = recency (dark = older, yellow = newer)
| Week | Weekly gigs | Drv30d | Ratio | Rev/gig | Cost/gig | GM0 |
|---|
Definitions. Ratio = weekly intra-DE gigs ÷ DE drivers active in the trailing 30 days. Sweet spot = ratio where GM0 = €0, computed weekly from a rolling 4-week regression. Active-30d driver = a driver in the DE driver pool who successfully completed (delivered) at least one gig in the trailing 30 days, counted once regardless of how many gigs they did; includes DE-pool drivers doing any route (intra-DE or cross-border export), excludes accounts that only signed up, drivers whose recent gigs were cancelled, and drivers in other country pools. GM0 = revenue − driver fees − tracked expenses, per gig.
What's included / excluded. Revenue is list price (excludes ~2.5% from customer discounts). Cost excludes insurance (~€8–10/gig), refunds, and ops/HQ overhead — so dashboard GM0 is roughly €15–25/gig more optimistic than the true bottom-line per-gig margin. Scope is intra-DE only (Germany pickup AND delivery); cross-border (DE→DK, NL, etc.) is excluded. The current in-progress week is dropped so partial data doesn't distort numbers.
Treat with care. The sweet spot is fit on only 4 weeks of data, so single-week swings of ±0.3 are normal noise. Read it as a direction, not a two-decimal target. Planner conversion (5%) and churn (15%) are starting assumptions and will be replaced by real funnel data as it accumulates.
The ratio tells you how many gigs each driver should handle on average. That's the only variable.
Because the target ratio is not arbitrary — it's the sweet spot from the dashboard, dictated by economics. It's the highest ratio you can run before driver fees catch up to revenue.
It's a simple measure of how busy the marketplace is, per available driver:
Higher ratio = more gigs chasing each driver (the marketplace is "hot", drivers can be picky and charge more).
Lower ratio = more drivers chasing each gig (the marketplace is "loose", drivers compete and accept lower fees).
Sweet spot = the ratio (gigs per active driver per week) where we break even on GM0.
The goal is for our supply health ratio to hit the target (the sweet spot). Think of it like throwing a dart at a target on a wall:
So we steer by tuning either side: open the sales taps to push ratio up, or accelerate driver acquisition to push it down. The target itself stays put unless the underlying economics shift (see below).
The bigger the gap between revenue and cost (at any given ratio), the higher the sweet spot. The higher the margin, the higher the sweet spot ratio. The lower the margin, the lower the sweet spot.
Four ways this plays out:
Every week, we fit a regression line through the last 4 weeks of (ratio, GM0 per gig) data points. The sweet spot is where that line crosses zero (i.e., GM0 per gig = €0). Because we use a rolling 4-week window, the sweet spot updates every Monday as recent data comes in.